Key results
increase in revenue with the same marketing budget by reallocating across high-performing channels
seasonal and promotional scenarios simulated, supporting real-time budget decisions during major events
improvement in ROAS on Meta and Display through saturation-adjusted reallocation
reduction in planning effort using self-serve tools integrated with marketing and sales data
About the Client
A U.S.-based luxury lighting and home furnishings brand renowned for its designer collaborations and curated collections. The client operates across e-commerce, showroom retail, and trade channels, with campaign-heavy seasonal peaks and high-margin product segments.
Key Challenges
No clear attribution of sales across marketing channels, especially during cross-channel campaigns
Missed reallocation opportunities during high-stakes retail events and designer launches
Overspending on saturated channels without visibility into diminishing returns
Manual campaign planning slowed decisions between marketing, merchandising, and finance
Our Approach
Data Consolidation & Feature Engineering
- Unified weekly-level marketing, sales, promo, and calendar data across Meta, Google, Email, CRM
- Engineered features for seasonality, product launches, and pricing events
- Stored in Google BigQuery to support high-speed querying and simulations
Bayesian Marketing Mix Modeling
- Built probabilistic models to estimate individual and combined impact of marketing channels
- Modeled saturation curves to detect diminishing returns on ad spend
- Captured external factors like seasonality, promotions, and event-driven demand
Sales Attribution & Scenario Simulation
- Decomposed historical sales into base vs. incremental lift by channel
- Enabled custom scenario testing (e.g. collection drops, flash sales, gifting season)
- Simulated 20+ budget combinations with projected ROI and sales forecasts
Interactive Planning & Budget Optimization
- Delivered an app for planners to compare current vs. optimized allocations
- Included export-ready views for quick execution and team alignment
- Empowered teams to test, tweak, and validate strategy in real-time
Implemented Solution
ROAS & Saturation Dashboard
- Interactive charts showing diminishing returns and channel performance
- ROI trendlines based on ad spend deltas
- Filters by product category, campaign type, and channel
What-If Scenario Builder
- Simulations for seasonal campaigns, showroom activations, and promo events
- Inputs for dates, budgets, product focus, and goals
- Visual outputs: expected lift, spend effectiveness, and sales decomposition
Optimized Budget Recommender
- Detected overspend in saturated channels and underinvestment in high-return ones
- Suggested shifts by campaign, objective, and margin priority
- Enabled strategy pivots toward profit-maximizing mixes
Attribution & Sales Breakdown Engine
- Weekly attribution of sales to each channel and campaign type
- Side-by-side actual vs predicted performance
- Tools to validate media mix strategy and model reliability
Technologies Used
